2026 Video Game of the Year Predictions Put Grand Theft Auto VI at 73%

The 2026 Game of the Year prediction market currently looks like a one-game race. Grand Theft Auto VI holds a 73% displayed chance on Kalshi and a nearly identical 73% probability on Polymarket, even though its scheduled release is still more than two months away.

That lead is unusual for an unreleased game, especially one scheduled to arrive on November 19, only 21 days before The Game Awards on December 10. Traders are predicting more than sales or popularity. They're predicting that GTA VI will release on time, qualify for consideration, earn an official nomination, impress the voting jury, and win the most important award of the night.

Resident Evil Requiem is the nearest challenger, but it remains far behind. Kalshi gives the game a 13% displayed chance, while Polymarket places it near 8%. Control Resonant sits at 5% on Kalshi and 3% on Polymarket ahead of its September 24 release.

How the 2026 Game of the Year Winner Is Chosen

The Game Awards returns to the Peacock Theater in Los Angeles on Thursday, December 10. The Game of the Year award recognizes a release judged to deliver the best overall experience across creative and technical fields.

The public vote matters, but it doesn't decide the main award by itself. The winners are determined through a blended vote that gives 90% of the weight to a jury of gaming media and industry outlets and 10% to authenticated fan voting. That structure makes critical reception, design, storytelling, technical quality, and the overall jury response more important than a simple online popularity contest.

The official nominees haven't been announced yet. That distinction matters because the names available in a prediction market aren't automatically official Game Awards nominees. Kalshi can list likely contenders based on announced games and trade reporting, then settle each contract according to the winner documented by The Game Awards.

Readers who are new to event contracts can review our Prediction Markets overview. Our Kalshi market guide explains how YES and NO prices, $1 payouts, settlement rules, and order books function.

Why Grand Theft Auto VI Is the 73% Favorite

Grand Theft Auto VI is one of the most anticipated entertainment releases of the decade. The game returns the series to Vice City and follows Jason and Lucia through a criminal conspiracy spanning the state of Leonida. It's scheduled for PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S on November 19.

The franchise's reach gives GTA VI an immediate advantage. The release will generate enormous sales, media attention, streaming activity, online discussion, and jury awareness before the ceremony. Traders clearly expect that attention to translate into award support.

Its 73% price also reflects expectations about quality. Buyers aren't merely predicting that the game will launch. They're assuming the final release will meet the high creative and technical expectations attached to Rockstar's largest project.

That assumption carries several risks. A delay beyond the eligibility window could effectively end the contract's chance. Serious performance problems, weak reviews, an unfinished launch, or a nomination omission could also cause the price to fall quickly. Even a successful release could lose to a title that has been available for most of the year and already built support among voters.

The late release creates the largest question. GTA VI is scheduled to arrive only three weeks before the ceremony. That gives jurors a limited period to complete a very large game, compare it with the rest of the year's releases, and cast their votes. The exact nomination and review schedule will therefore matter almost as much as the November 19 launch date.

Kalshi's 2026 Game of the Year Prices

Kalshi has recorded more than $1.86 million in trading volume across the Game of the Year market. Grand Theft Auto VI accounts for the clear lead, while every alternative currently trades at 13% or lower.

The table includes every supplied Kalshi outcome with both a YES and NO price. Games for which the supplied data didn't display a NO price have been omitted. Displayed probabilities and executable YES or NO prices can differ because each side has its own live order book.

A 73¢ YES price means one Grand Theft Auto VI contract costs about 73¢ at the lowest displayed level and pays $1 if GTA VI wins. The gross difference is 27¢ per winning contract before fees. If another game wins, the GTA VI YES contract pays $0.

The underdogs offer much larger possible returns because their contracts cost less. Resident Evil Requiem at 12¢ leaves 88¢ between the purchase price and a $1 winning payout. Control Resonant at 5¢ leaves 95¢. Those larger possible gains exist because the market assigns each game a much lower chance of winning.

The Three Games Leading the Current Race

Grand Theft Auto VI

GTA VI is the only title above 50% on either market. The scheduled November 19 launch gives the game the biggest possible news cycle close to voting, but it also leaves little room for delays or technical problems. Its current price shows that traders believe the combination of anticipation, production scale, franchise recognition, and expected reviews outweighs the late timing.

Resident Evil Requiem

Resident Evil Requiem launched on February 27 as the ninth mainline entry in the series. The game combines survival horror, action, and puzzles through two central characters, FBI analyst Grace Ashcroft and Leon S. Kennedy. Players can switch between first-person and third-person views, which gives the release a broader gameplay identity than a standard continuation.

Its earlier release gives voters far more time with the game. The disadvantage is that the year's later releases can take attention away from a February launch. Resident Evil Requiem currently holds 13% on Kalshi but only about 8% on Polymarket, showing that traders agree it's the nearest established challenger without agreeing on how close the race really is.

Control Resonant

Control Resonant arrives on September 24 and shifts the series toward a melee-focused action RPG. Dylan Faden leads the story through a Manhattan altered by paranatural forces, with missions, bosses, puzzles, multiple city zones, and new areas of the Oldest House.

The September release gives the game enough time to build reviews and jury support before nominations. Its 5% Kalshi price and roughly 3% Polymarket probability show limited current confidence, but those numbers could change sharply if the release earns exceptional reviews.

Polymarket Shows the Same Favorite With Different Underdogs

Polymarket's Game of the Year market has generated more than $23,600 in volume since launching on August 4. Grand Theft Auto VI also leads at 73%, but the order behind it differs from Kalshi.

Polymarket's displayed probability can differ from the current buy price. Review the executable quote, available quantity, and complete resolution rules before placing an order.

Phantom Blade Zero receives more attention on Polymarket, where its 5% displayed probability places it third. Marvel's Wolverine and The Duskbloods also sit above Control Resonant in the displayed order, while Kalshi currently places Control third. The table includes all 24 Polymarket outcomes and every supplied price and volume figure.

Those differences can come from liquidity, trader composition, order-book depth, and the time of the latest transaction. Kalshi's market has substantially more reported volume, which may make its leading prices less sensitive to a single small order. Neither market guarantees the result, and both can reprice quickly once official nominees or major reviews arrive.

Our Polymarket guide covers the company's prediction markets, while our Polymarket promo codes page covers the current new-customer offer. Readers can also review the latest Kalshi promo codes before opening an account.

Grand Theft Auto VI Payout Examples at 73¢

Each winning YES contract pays $1. At a simple 73¢ price, the gross profit is 27¢ per contract if Grand Theft Auto VI wins. The examples below use whole contracts and don't include fees, price movement, or higher asks reached by a larger order.

The displayed 73¢ price doesn't mean every available contract can be purchased at 73¢. Larger orders may consume the quantity available at the lowest ask and continue into 74¢, 75¢, or higher levels. Fees can also increase the final estimated cost.

That order shows why a heavy favorite can require considerably more money for a smaller return. The maximum loss is still the full amount paid if GTA VI doesn't win, even when the market describes it as the most likely outcome.

What a $100 Underdog Prediction Could Pay

The lower-priced contracts create much larger possible returns, but the market assigns those outcomes a much smaller chance. These examples use the displayed Kalshi YES prices and assume the order can fill at one price.

These are gross examples before fees and order-book movement. A real order may not have enough contracts available at the displayed price, especially for thousands of shares in a lower-volume outcome.

Resident Evil Requiem is the most established alternative among the top three because it's already released. A $100 position near 12¢ could buy about 833 contracts, but the entire cost is at risk if another game wins.

Control Resonant's 5¢ price creates a much larger maximum payout on paper. Buying 2,000 contracts at exactly 5¢ would cost $100 and pay $2,000 if it wins. The difficult part is finding enough contracts at that price, accepting the low implied probability, and holding through release reviews, nominations, and the December result.

Upcoming Releases That Could Change the Race

The current probabilities are being set before several major contenders reach players. Every launch gives traders new information about review scores, technical performance, player response, and whether the game appears likely to earn a nomination.

Confirmed for 2026 Without an Exact Release Date

Two additional high-profile games still have broad 2026 release windows. Their eligibility and market prices depend on whether they arrive in time for consideration.

Not every commercially successful game receives Game of the Year support. Madden NFL 27, EA Sports FC 27, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4, and other large releases can sell extremely well without matching the jury profile of a critically acclaimed narrative, action, or role-playing game. Sales matter as part of the year's impact, but the award considers the complete creative and technical experience.

Fable, Persona 4 Revival, State of Decay 3, and Clockwork Revolution aren't included in the upcoming 2026 table because they're now scheduled for 2027. Halo: Campaign Evolved, Madden NFL 27, Resident Evil Requiem, and other major 2026 games that are already available also aren't listed as upcoming releases.

What Could Move the Game of the Year Prices?

The current 73% lead can change well before December 10. Several events will give traders information that isn't available in the August snapshot.

The official nominee announcement may be the biggest single pricing event before the show. Games that make the list could rise quickly, while titles left out would lose their path to a YES settlement.

Who Will Win the 2026 Video Game of the Year?

Grand Theft Auto VI is the clear market favorite at 73%, and no other game is close. Resident Evil Requiem currently occupies second place, while Control Resonant, Phantom Blade Zero, Marvel's Wolverine, and The Duskbloods lead the lower-priced group.

The current odds aren't the final result. GTA VI hasn't launched, several contenders still haven't reached players, and the official nominees haven't been announced. The market is pricing expectations across all of those unknowns.

That creates two very different choices for traders. The favorite offers a smaller possible return with a higher implied chance, while the underdogs offer much larger possible payouts with a greater likelihood of losing the full purchase price.

The next major changes should come from September and October releases, official nominations, and GTA VI's scheduled November 19 launch. Until then, the 73% price shows clear confidence, but the most important evidence is still ahead.