Robinhood Prediction Markets
Robinhood brings event contracts into the same financial app used for stocks, ETFs, crypto, options and futures. This overview explains how Robinhood prediction markets work, where contracts come from, how prices and payouts are calculated, and how the wider Robinhood account can support research, funding and portfolio management.
Product access, contract availability, fees and eligibility can change. Review the current order screen and event rules before submitting a trade.
What Are Robinhood Prediction Markets?
Robinhood prediction markets let eligible US customers trade event contracts tied to measurable real-world outcomes. A contract can cover a sports result, election, temperature, commodity price, economic report, crypto level or entertainment event. Prices usually run from $0.01 to $0.99 and represent the market price for a possible result.
Robinhood provides the customer account, order interface and futures commission merchant services through Robinhood Derivatives. The contracts are listed and settled by partner exchanges such as KalshiEX, ForecastEx and Rothera. Readers comparing the broader field can review our Prediction Markets overview for the differences among exchanges, brokers and trading apps.
How Robinhood Prediction Markets Work
Every trade starts with a contract definition and ends through a settlement decision made by the exchange that listed the event.
Review the Contract
Read the exact result, deadline, source of truth, trading hours and any special settlement conditions.
Choose an Outcome
Select the listed result that matches your forecast and decide how many contracts fit your intended exposure.
Confirm Price and Fees
Check the contract price, available quantity, Robinhood commission, exchange fee and maximum payout.
Sell or Receive the Payout
Close the position when another trader accepts the order, or hold it for the exchange settlement.
Robinhood Prediction Contract Example
Suppose you buy 100 Yes contracts at $0.40 each. The contracts cost $40 before Robinhood and exchange fees. If the event resolves Yes, the standard payout is $100, producing a $60 gross profit before fees. If the event resolves No, the contracts settle at $0 and the $40 contract cost is lost. You can also place a closing order before settlement. The resulting gain or loss depends on the price another participant accepts, the number of contracts filled and the fees shown on the closing order.
Example Calculation
Why Traders May Prefer Robinhood Prediction Markets
Robinhood offers prediction contracts inside a broader financial account instead of asking customers to build an entirely separate trading routine around one product.
One Financial App
Stocks, ETFs, crypto, options, futures and event contracts can be researched from the same Robinhood login.
Familiar Cash Management
Eligible buying power can support contract purchases without a separate crypto wallet or blockchain transfer.
Portfolio Context
A trader can compare an event position with related stocks, commodities, crypto prices or futures exposure.
Mobile and Desktop Tools
Robinhood offers app access plus Robinhood Legend for broader charting, layouts and active-market monitoring.
Account Records
Prediction activity appears in transaction history, realized profit and loss views, annual statements and tax documents.
Gold Pricing Benefits
Robinhood Gold subscribers receive a lower commission constant for event contract trades under the current pricing schedule.
Robinhood Prediction Market Categories
The selection changes as partner exchanges list new contracts and older events reach settlement.
Sports
Baseball, basketball, football, soccer, tennis, golf, MMA, boxing, cricket, racing, esports and other competitions.
Politics and Elections
Congressional control, primaries, presidential races, state contests and other political results with defined evidence sources.
Crypto
Bitcoin price ranges, digital-asset milestones, market levels and other outcomes tied to published crypto data.
Economics
Federal Reserve decisions, inflation, economic indicators, gas prices, macroeconomic releases and international data.
Climate and Weather
Daily high and low temperatures, rainfall and other official weather observations tied to named locations.
Commodities and Metals
WTI crude, Brent crude, natural gas, gold, silver and related price outcomes with stated deadlines.
Entertainment
Awards, releases, public appearances, media results and cultural events with measurable settlement terms.
Technology
Company launches, AI developments, aerospace milestones, product releases and technology-industry outcomes.
Education and Financial Markets
University events, market indexes, rates and other contracts tied to named institutions or financial benchmarks.
Robinhood Prediction Fees, Funding, Trading Hours and Settlement
Event contracts use a Robinhood Derivatives account with rules and costs that differ from an ordinary stock or crypto order.
Eligibility
Applicants must be at least 18, have an individual Robinhood brokerage account, live in the United States and receive approval for a Robinhood Derivatives account. State restrictions apply.
Buying Power
Event contracts use available cash in the approved derivatives account. Open orders and other derivatives positions can reduce the amount available for a new contract purchase.
Trading Hours
Trading hours depend on the individual contract. The event page displays its opening time, closing time and any pause connected to the underlying event.
Robinhood Commission
The current probability-weighted calculation uses a 10% constant without Gold and 5% with Gold. Robinhood rounds commissions up to the nearest cent and caps the rate at $0.01 per contract.
Exchange Fee
The exchange that lists the contract can charge an additional fee of up to $0.01 per contract. The order review shows applicable charges before submission.
Settlement
The exchange partner applies the published contract rules and source of truth. Robinhood displays the result and credits the payout after the exchange completes settlement.
Robinhood vs Dedicated Prediction Exchanges
Robinhood acts as the customer-facing broker and futures commission merchant, while exchange partners list, match and settle the contracts.
| Feature | Robinhood Prediction Markets | Dedicated Prediction Exchange |
|---|---|---|
| Primary Use | Predictions inside a wider investing and trading account | Prediction contracts as the central platform product |
| Customer Interface | Robinhood app, website and connected account tools | Exchange interface built around contract discovery and order books |
| Contract Source | Partner exchanges including KalshiEX, ForecastEx and Rothera | Contracts listed directly by the exchange |
| Other Assets | Stocks, ETFs, crypto, options, futures, IRAs and managed portfolios | Often limited to event contracts and related cash products |
| Best Fit | Customers who value one account across several asset classes | Traders who want prediction-specific navigation and exchange tools |
A Robinhood order can provide convenient access without making Robinhood the exchange behind every contract. The event details name the listing exchange, and that exchange controls the settlement rules, official data source and final determination.
What Robinhood Is Beyond Prediction Markets
Robinhood Markets, Inc. is a publicly traded financial services company founded in 2013 by Vlad Tenev and Baiju Bhatt. Its products span self-directed investing, crypto, derivatives, retirement, advisory services, credit cards and newer financial technology products.
Stocks and ETFs
Robinhood offers self-directed stock and ETF trading, fractional shares, recurring investments, IPO Access and 24/5 trading for supported securities.
Robinhood Crypto
Customers can buy, sell, hold and transfer supported digital assets, use recurring orders, set alerts and access staking where eligible.
Options and Futures
Approved traders can use stock and ETF options, index options, futures and event contracts through the relevant Robinhood entities.
Robinhood Retirement
Traditional and Roth IRAs support self-directed investing, recurring contributions and contribution matches under current terms.
Robinhood Strategies
Managed accounts use a portfolio selected and adjusted by Robinhood Asset Management for a published annual management fee.
Robinhood Legend
The desktop platform adds customizable layouts, charts, technical indicators, linked widgets and faster order access for active traders.
Using Robinhood for Stocks, Crypto, Options and Cash Transfers
The same account can support several trading workflows, though each product uses its own eligibility rules, order screen and legal entity.
Buying and Selling Stocks
Search the company or ticker, select Buy or Sell, choose shares or a dollar amount, set the order type and review the estimated total. Fractional orders can start at $1 for eligible securities.
Buying Bitcoin and Selling Crypto
Open the Bitcoin or supported crypto page, enter the purchase or sale amount, review the quoted price and submit the order. Robinhood Crypto supports trading 24 hours a day.
Trading Options
Options require approval for an appropriate trading level. After approval, choose the underlying stock or ETF, expiration, strike, position and order price before reviewing the risk and collateral.
Day Trading on Robinhood
FINRA's intraday margin standards replaced the old pattern day trader restrictions on June 4, 2026. Robinhood margin accounts no longer use the former $25,000 day-trading minimum, though a $2,000 margin minimum and real-time intraday margin requirements still apply.
Withdrawing Money
Go to Account, Menu, Transfers and Withdraw, then choose the source, destination and amount. Standard ACH withdrawals have no Robinhood fee. Eligible instant withdrawals can carry a 1.75% fee, and stock or option sale proceeds normally use T+1 settlement.
Stock Lending
The optional Stock Lending program lets Robinhood Securities borrow eligible fully paid shares and pay the customer a lending fee when a loan occurs. Loan demand and income vary, and customers can opt out through Robinhood.
Buying SpaceX Stock on Robinhood
SpaceX completed its public offering in June 2026 and now trades on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX. The IPO stage has ended, so Robinhood customers buy or sell SPCX through its standard stock page like another supported public company. Robinhood IPO Access can offer eligible users the chance to request shares in select future offerings at the IPO price, but a request doesn't guarantee an allocation.
When Robinhood Gold May Be Worth the Cost
Robinhood Gold costs $5 per month or $50 per year. Its practical value depends on which benefits a customer can use and how much those benefits save or earn compared with the subscription price.
Prediction Commissions
Gold uses a 5% commission constant for event contracts instead of the 10% constant applied without Gold under the current schedule.
High-Yield Cash
Eligible brokerage cash can earn 3.35% APY through the current High-Yield Cash program after enrollment. The rate can change.
IRA Contribution Match
Gold members can receive a 3% match on eligible self-directed IRA contributions, subject to subscription and holding requirements.
Trading and Research Benefits
Gold includes the first $1,000 of eligible margin borrowing without interest, bigger instant deposits and discounts on selected products.
Robinhood Gold Card
The Gold Card offers 3% cash back on eligible purchases and has no separate annual card fee. Approval requires an annual Robinhood Gold subscription at $50 and the card is managed in the Robinhood Banking app.
Robinhood Strategies Fee Cap
Eligible Gold subscribers pay the Robinhood Strategies management fee on the first $100,000 of managed assets, with a 0% management rate on the portion above that level under current terms.
Robinhood Safety, SIPC Protection and FDIC Insurance
Robinhood uses separate regulated entities for brokerage, crypto, derivatives, advisory and credit products. Protection depends on the account type and the asset held inside it.
Brokerage Accounts
Robinhood Financial and Robinhood Securities are SIPC members. Standard SIPC protection covers securities customers up to $500,000, including up to $250,000 for cash claims.
Cash Sweep
Eligible uninvested cash in the opted-in brokerage cash sweep program can receive FDIC pass-through coverage across program banks up to $2.5 million for individual accounts and $5 million for joint accounts.
Robinhood Crypto
Crypto services are offered through Robinhood Crypto, LLC, with buying, selling, transfers, staking and account security features for supported digital assets.
Robinhood Derivatives
Futures and event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, a CFTC-registered futures commission merchant and NFA member.
Account Security
Robinhood uses identity verification, encryption, multi-factor authentication, security monitoring and additional account safeguards. Customers can also review login activity, device access, withdrawal details and support messages from within the official Robinhood products.
Market risk is separate from account protection. Stock prices, crypto values, options, futures and prediction contracts can all produce losses. Tax reporting can also differ by product, so customers should review Robinhood statements and consult a qualified tax professional for their own filing requirements.
Review Robinhood Products Before You Trade
Compare the event contract, stock, crypto price or membership benefit before committing funds. Confirm the current fees, eligibility, settlement rules and maximum possible loss on the final order screen.