Who Will Win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?

Christopher Nolan's adaptation of Homer's epic follows Odysseus, played by Matt Damon, on the dangerous journey home to Ithaca after the Trojan War. The nearly three-hour film was released July 17 and features a massive ensemble that includes Anne Hathaway, Tom Holland, Robert Pattinson, Lupita Nyong'o, Zendaya, and Charlize Theron. Nolan shot the movie entirely with IMAX film cameras, giving it the kind of large-scale technical profile that can compete across directing, cinematography, production design, sound, visual effects, acting, and Best Picture. More importantly for the current race, Academy voters do not have to predict whether the movie will work because it is already in theaters. AwardsWatch currently has it first in Best Picture, and Entertainment Weekly describes it as one of the year's most obvious Oscar contenders.

Kalshi lists this movie under the English title The Black Ball, while Netflix is releasing it as La Bola Negra. Directed by Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi, the Spanish drama moves between 1932, 1937, and 2017 as three generations of men confront questions of desire, identity, inheritance, repression, and family history. The filmmakers drew inspiration from Federico García Lorca's unfinished work and related material, and the cast includes Guitarricadelafuente, Miguel Bernardeau, Carlos González, Milo Quifes, Penélope Cruz, Glenn Close, Lola Dueñas, and Julio Torres. After a strong Cannes reception, Netflix is giving the film a U.S. theatrical run beginning October 16 before its December 2 streaming debut. AwardsWatch currently places it second in the Best Picture race.

Denis Villeneuve's Dune trilogy reaches its conclusion on December 18. The third film is set nearly two decades after Paul Atreides seized control of the Imperium, with Timothée Chalamet returning alongside Zendaya, Jason Momoa, Florence Pugh, Rebecca Ferguson, Anya Taylor-Joy, Robert Pattinson, Javier Bardem, and others. The first two Dune films were both nominated for Best Picture, and the original won six Academy Awards, so the franchise already has a proven relationship with Oscar voters. The question is whether the final chapter becomes a major Best Picture culmination or whether another large-scale film, particularly The Odyssey, absorbs too much of the same awards-season attention. AwardsWatch currently has Dune: Part Three sixth in Best Picture.

Martin McDonagh writes and directs Wild Horse Nine, a darkly comic political drama set shortly before Chile's 1973 coup. John Malkovich and Sam Rockwell play CIA agents dispatched from Santiago to Easter Island by their bureau chief, played by Steve Buscemi. Their mission becomes increasingly complicated by the agents' pasts, the political situation around them, and a relationship that develops between Malkovich's character and two rebellious students. The cast also includes Mariana di Girolamo, Ailín Salas, Tom Waits, and Parker Posey. McDonagh has already taken Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and The Banshees of Inisherin deep into previous Oscar seasons, and AwardsWatch currently ranks Wild Horse Nine third for Best Picture ahead of its November 6 theatrical release.

Digger brings Tom Cruise back to a very different type of starring role under director Alejandro G. Iñárritu. Warner Bros. describes Cruise's Digger Rockwell as the most powerful man in the world, racing to convince everyone that he can save humanity before a disaster of his own making destroys everything. The supporting cast includes Riz Ahmed, John Goodman, Sandra Hüller, Michael Stuhlbarg, and Jesse Plemons. Iñárritu shot the movie entirely in VistaVision, and the film reaches theaters and IMAX on October 2. Beyond the technical pedigree, the major awards question is Cruise himself. Entertainment Weekly points to the combination of a dramatically different role, Cruise's long Oscar history, and Iñárritu's record of directing actors into Academy contention.

Jesse Eisenberg wrote and directed The Debut, an A24 comedy centered on Mona Friedman, a quiet housewife played by Julianne Moore who lands a tiny role in a local community-theater production and becomes consumed by method acting. Her determination to defend the artistic integrity of her minor part eventually puts her at war with the show's domineering director. Paul Giamatti, Halle Bailey, and Eisenberg also star. The movie arrives December 11, but much of the early Oscar discussion is already focused on Moore. Entertainment Weekly views the performance as a possible route to a second Academy Award, while AwardsWatch currently keeps The Debut just outside its August Best Picture top 10.

Cristian Mungiu's Fjord enters awards season with something most contenders will never have: the 2026 Palme d'Or from Cannes. Sebastian Stan and Renate Reinsve play Mihai and Lisbet, a Romanian-Norwegian couple who move with their five children to a remote Norwegian community. Their conservative religious beliefs increasingly conflict with the people around them, and the situation escalates after bruises discovered on one of their children trigger scrutiny from local authorities. The resulting drama examines parenting, faith, cultural assimilation, social institutions, and the limits of judgment without reducing the conflict to an easy answer. AwardsWatch currently ranks Fjord fourth for Best Picture, while Entertainment Weekly also identifies it as an important international contender.

Project Hail Mary is already one of the year's biggest commercial success stories. Ryan Gosling stars as science teacher Ryland Grace, who wakes alone on a spacecraft with no memory of how he got there and gradually discovers that he has been sent on a mission to prevent a mysterious cosmic phenomenon from killing the Sun. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller directed the adaptation of Andy Weir's novel, with Sandra Hüller also in the cast. The movie opened March 20 and has remained part of the Oscar conversation despite arriving much earlier in the calendar than most traditional awards-season releases. Entertainment Weekly notes its nearly $700 million worldwide box office and Gosling's widely praised performance as reasons it could remain relevant through nomination season.