When Will the CLARITY Act Become Law

The CLARITY Act has already completed one of the hardest steps in Congress. The House passed H.R. 3633 by a bipartisan 294-134 vote in July 2025, but more than a year later, the United States still doesn't have a final digital asset market-structure law.

The Senate has spent months rewriting, expanding, and combining separate committee proposals. Its latest version is far larger than the House bill and adds new language covering stablecoin rewards, banking, decentralized finance, law enforcement, customer property, software developers, and government ethics.

Senate leaders have now scheduled a procedural vote for September 15. That vote requires 60 senators and only begins the next stage of the process. The Senate would still have to debate amendments, pass the bill, settle its differences with the House, and send identical legislation to President Donald Trump before the current Congress ends.

What Would the CLARITY Act Do?

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act would create the first broad federal rulebook for the U.S. cryptocurrency market. Its central purpose is to decide which digital assets and transactions fall under the Securities and Exchange Commission and which fall under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

The SEC would continue overseeing securities, tokenized securities, investment contracts, and the primary fundraising transactions used to launch certain tokens. The CFTC would receive new supervisory authority over spot trading in digital commodities through registered exchanges, brokers, dealers, and custodians.

The bill would also establish disclosure rules for certain network tokens, restrictions on insider sales, bankruptcy protections for customer property, anti-money laundering requirements, crypto ATM safeguards, self-custody protections, and limited exemptions for developers who publish or maintain noncustodial software.

It wouldn't classify every cryptocurrency as a commodity. Tokenized securities would remain securities, fraud would remain illegal, and payment-stablecoin issuers would continue to fall primarily under the separate GENIUS Act framework.

Where the CLARITY Act Stands Now

The bill is closer to becoming law than previous crypto market-structure proposals, but it isn't at the finish line. The Senate's version combines work from the Banking and Agriculture committees and replaces much of the text that originally passed the House.

A successful September 15 vote wouldn't mean the bill has passed. Senators could still offer amendments, and another cloture vote may be required before final passage. The House would then have to accept the Senate substitute or negotiate a final version that both chambers can pass.

Becoming law and becoming fully effective are also different events. The current Senate text generally takes effect 360 days after enactment. Provisions that require final regulations may begin even later, which means a bill signed in 2026 could produce most of its operating rules in late 2027 or 2028.

Why Traders Doubt the Bill Will Pass in 2026

The September delay leaves Congress with a narrow calendar. The Senate returns on September 14 and must handle the CLARITY Act alongside spending bills, defense legislation, and other scheduled business. The November midterm elections will also reduce the number of days lawmakers spend in Washington.

The first question is whether supporters can reach the 60 votes needed to advance the bill. The Senate Banking Committee's bipartisan vote helped, but some of the Democrats who supported the committee process haven't promised to support the final floor version.

Stablecoin rewards remain one of the most difficult disagreements. The Senate text would prohibit passive, deposit-like interest paid solely for holding a payment stablecoin. It would still allow rewards tied to payments, transactions, staking, providing liquidity, governance participation, and loyalty programs.

Community banks argue that those exceptions could still let crypto companies offer products that compete directly with bank deposits. If deposits move into stablecoins backed mainly by Treasury securities, smaller banks could lose funding they currently use for mortgages, farm loans, and small-business credit. One banking analysis estimates that smaller South Dakota banks hold about $47 billion in local deposits and could lose billions in lending capacity if stablecoins draw a meaningful share of that money away.

Supporters answer that activity-based rewards aren't the same as passive bank interest and that a complete ban would protect banks from legitimate competition. That gap hasn't been resolved, and several Republican senators have also asked for tighter protections for community-bank deposits.

Other disputes cover DeFi anti-money laundering requirements, state enforcement powers, investor protections, the scope of SEC exemptions, and ethics rules for government officials with crypto interests. Any one of those issues could delay the bill or change the final Senate vote.

Kalshi's CLARITY Act Timeline

Kalshi lets traders choose from several deadlines. The market isn't limited to whether H.R. 3633 becomes law during 2026. Its title also refers to any qualifying crypto market-structure bill, which could matter if the current bill expires and Congress introduces a replacement in 2027.

The displayed chance and current YES or NO prices can differ because they come from live market data and separate order books. Review the current price and complete market rules before trading.

The probability doesn't reach 50% until the final deadline shown, before January 1, 2028. Even that isn't an overwhelming consensus. It means traders are nearly divided over whether the current bill or another qualifying crypto market-structure bill becomes law during the period covered by the market.

The April 1, 2027 contract is especially interesting because it covers the beginning of the next Congress. If H.R. 3633 fails during 2026, lawmakers would have almost three months to introduce and pass a successor before that deadline. That's possible, but a new Congress, new committee leadership, and the midterm election results could change the entire negotiation.

Readers who want more information about contract pricing can review our Prediction Markets overview and Kalshi guide.

Kalshi and Polymarket Aren't Asking the Same Question

The two markets cover the same legislation, but their wording and deadlines create different outcomes. That makes a direct comparison useful, but it doesn't make their probabilities interchangeable.

Polymarket currently gives 2026 passage a 14% chance. YES costs 14¢, while NO costs 87¢ in the supplied screenshot. The market has recorded more than $11.4 million in volume, showing that the low probability isn't based on a small or inactive question.

Kalshi gives the before-January 1, 2027 outcome a 23% displayed chance. That gap may reflect different traders, liquidity, calculations, and market wording. Anyone comparing the prices should read both sets of rules instead of assuming they settle on identical events.

What the Current Contract Prices Could Pay

The 87¢ Polymarket NO price offers a relatively small return because the market already treats failure in 2026 as the likely outcome. Each winning NO share pays $1, leaving 13¢ in gross profit per share at an 87¢ purchase price.

The supplied Polymarket order screen also shows a $1,000 NO purchase at an average price of 87¢ with a displayed return of $1,143.45. That leaves $143.45 between the purchase amount and the maximum displayed return if the market resolves NO.

Kalshi's before-April 1, 2027 YES contract costs 34¢ in the supplied market. Each winning share pays $1, leaving 66¢ in gross profit per share at that price.

A separate Kalshi order screen shows 500 before-April 1 YES shares at an average price of 34.94¢. The displayed cost is $182.67, the maximum payout is $500, and the potential profit is $317.33 if the contract resolves YES.

These examples use the displayed screenshots and whole shares. The price can move before an order fills, and a larger order may reach several prices in the order book. That can make the average cost higher than the price shown on the main market screen.

Banks Aren't Waiting for Congress

The legislative delay hasn't stopped banks from testing blockchain settlement and tokenized deposits. Large institutions already move institutional payments through private blockchain systems, while regional banks are also joining shared networks designed for regulated tokenized deposits.

Seventeen major financial institutions have announced plans for a clearing and settlement system for tokenized deposits with a reported 2027 target. Another bank-governed network has attracted more than 30 institutions, with dozens more in discussions and over $10 trillion in combined assets represented.

CLARITY wouldn't directly regulate tokenized bank deposits or make separate bank networks interoperable. It would define the surrounding digital asset market, explain how regulated stablecoins and digital commodities can trade, and give bank boards and regulators a clearer view of the competitive environment.

That matters because continued uncertainty encourages each bank to build a closed system that only has to satisfy its own compliance requirements. Clearer federal rules could make connections between regulated networks easier to approve, but the technology, privacy, clearing, and settlement questions would still remain.

What Could Change the CLARITY Act Odds?

The current probabilities can move long before a final signature. The September 15 vote is the first scheduled event, but several developments could reprice every deadline on both markets.

Prediction markets may react before Congress takes a final vote. A senator announcing support, a revised amendment, or a White House-backed compromise can change prices immediately. The reverse is also true. A scheduling delay or public opposition from a needed senator can lower the probability even if the bill remains technically alive.

Will the CLARITY Act Become Law in 2026, 2027, or 2028?

The current market data points away from 2026. Polymarket gives H.R. 3633 a 14% chance of being signed before the end of the year, while Kalshi gives passage before January 1, 2027 a 23% displayed chance under its broader question.

Kalshi moves to 32% before April 1, 2027, 41% before July 1, and 45% before October 1. The probability reaches 50% only for the before-January 1, 2028 deadline. That makes 2027 the center of the current market timeline, but traders still aren't confident enough to put any earlier deadline above 50%.

The September 15 vote will tell us whether the Senate has a real path forward this year. If 60 senators vote to advance the bill, 2026 prices could rise quickly. If the vote fails, attention will likely move toward a replacement bill in 2027, and the current H.R. 3633 market on Polymarket will become much harder for YES traders to win.

The market's answer today is 2027 or later. Congress can still change that answer, but it has limited time, several unresolved disputes, and a midterm election standing between the current bill and the president's desk.