NFL Week 1 Predictions for All 16 Games

NFL Week 1 gives traders several ways to make a prediction. You can choose the outright game winner, take a point spread, or trade the total number of points scored. Kalshi and Polymarket already have prices posted for the full opening slate, while ProphetX and Novig give sports traders additional ways to follow the same games.

If you're new to this type of trading, our Prediction Markets page explains how contract prices, payouts, and market movement differ from traditional sports betting.

For this article, we're keeping the main comparison simple and using the outright game-winner markets. That's also how I personally prefer to approach Week 1. Pick the team you think wins, then let them go out there and do their thing.

Current NFL Week 1 Prices and Our Picks

Kalshi and Polymarket are remarkably close on most of the opening games. Seattle, Los Angeles, Detroit, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, the Chargers, Las Vegas, Philadelphia, and Kansas City are all clear or moderate favorites on both markets.

The more interesting games are Buffalo-Houston, Green Bay-Minnesota, and the selections where I'm intentionally taking the lower-priced side.

The price shown is the current price for the selected team in the outright winner market. A winning $1 contract settles according to the rules of the individual prediction market. Fees and trading costs can apply.

Why Some of the Market Favorites Make Sense

The early prediction-market prices aren't appearing in a vacuum. Sharp Football Analysis currently ranks the Rams first overall, followed by Buffalo and Seattle. Green Bay is fourth, the Chargers fifth, Baltimore eighth, and Philadelphia ninth.

ESPN's position-group rankings also give Buffalo the league's top quarterback group, with the Rams second, Kansas City third, and Baltimore fourth. FOX goes a different direction by ranking complete skill-position groups, but the Rams again finish first, while Detroit ranks second.

CBS Sports had Seattle first and the Rams second in its post-draft power rankings. Those rankings don't predict one particular Week 1 game, but they provide useful roster context for why the early market is giving several of these teams premium prices.

Kalshi NFL Week 1 Markets

Kalshi lists all 16 Week 1 games with outright winner contracts, and individual game pages can also include spread and total markets. For example, the Patriots-Seahawks game currently has Seattle near 63¢ to win outright, while the spread market prices Seattle by more than 3.5 points close to a coin flip.

Readers who want more information about contract prices, settlement, and account features can review our Kalshi Prediction Markets page.

New users can also review the current Kalshi Promo Codes page. The current linked offer requires at least $25 in qualifying trading activity and provides up to $500 in promotional rewards, subject to the promotion terms.

Polymarket NFL Week 1 Markets

Polymarket's current NFL board is very close to Kalshi on most game-winner prices, although a few cents of separation appear throughout the schedule. The Patriots-Seahawks market, for example, currently shows Seattle at 65¢, compared with 63¢ on Kalshi.

The company also lists spreads and totals beside each game, giving traders a choice between simply picking the winner or taking a position on the final margin or combined score.

Our Polymarket Prediction Markets page covers the U.S. product in more detail, while the Polymarket Promo Codes page covers the current new-user offer.

ProphetX NFL Markets

ProphetX is built heavily around sports trading, with game winners, spreads, totals, props, futures, and other NFL markets available throughout the season.

You can review how its sports markets and order system operate on our ProphetX Prediction Markets page.

The current new-user promotion advertises $20 in promotional credit after an eligible customer completes at least $10 in qualifying trading activity. Our ProphetX Promo Codes page covers the current requirements.

Novig NFL Markets

Novig takes a sports-first approach and uses a sweepstakes structure with Novig Coins and Novig Cash. Its sports board includes game winners, spreads, totals, props, futures, and live markets.

Our Novig Prediction Markets page explains the difference between the two balances, trading mechanics, and eligibility requirements.

The current linked promotion advertises Deposit $10, Get $25. Readers can review the current details on our Novig Promo Codes page.

Point Spreads, Game Winners, or Totals?

There isn't one correct way to approach an NFL prediction market. Each market asks a different question.

The outright winner market is the simplest. Your team either wins the game or it doesn't. A spread gives the underdog points or requires the favorite to win by more than a specified margin. A total ignores the winner entirely and focuses on how many combined points both teams score.

The opening Patriots-Seahawks market shows why these can tell different stories. Seattle is a clear favorite in the outright market, but Seattle by more than 3.5 points is priced much closer to even. Someone can therefore believe Seattle wins while still thinking New England keeps the game close.

That's also why prices shouldn't be compared blindly between different market types. A 63¢ Seattle winner contract and a roughly 50¢ Seattle spread contract are answering two separate questions.