Polymarket Prediction Markets
Polymarket is a peer-to-peer prediction market where prices track what traders collectively think will happen across politics, sports, crypto, finance, technology, culture, weather and breaking news. This guide explains the trading process, live prices, fees, resolution, rewards, platform access and the risks behind each position.
View Polymarket BonusesPromotion terms, eligibility and available markets can change. Review the current offer page and platform rules before funding an account or placing a trade.
What Polymarket Is and What Traders Buy
Polymarket turns clearly defined future outcomes into tradable Yes and No shares. Each market includes a question, deadline, resolution rules and evidence source, while prices move as orders enter the book and new information changes what traders collectively expect to happen.
Buyers and sellers trade through a central limit order book, with offchain matching and onchain settlement through Polygon smart contracts. Outcome shares aren't company ownership. Winning shares are redeemable for $1 after resolution, losing shares become worth $0, and traders can sell before resolution when sufficient liquidity exists.
How Americans Can Access Polymarket
Polymarket.com is the international product and isn't available for US residents to deposit funds or place trades. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated exchange operated by QCX LLC, with clearing and settlement handled by QC Clearing LLC through Polymarket Clearing. International and US accounts aren't connected.
Use the Official US App
US residents must use the separate Polymarket US mobile product. Polymarket's current Help Center directs Americans to the iPhone app and lists Android access as coming soon, so verify current device availability through Polymarket's official support information.
Complete Identity Verification
Retail participants must pass Know Your Customer verification before funding and trading. The regulated onboarding process can request a legal name, date of birth, Social Security number, contact details and residential address, with document review when required.
Fund the US Account in Dollars
Polymarket US supports regulated payment infrastructure for ACH bank transfers, debit or credit cards and Apple Pay. Available methods, limits, processing times and eligibility can differ by account and payment provider.
Kalshi is a separate CFTC-regulated prediction exchange with a standard desktop website for eligible US traders who prefer browser-based access.
How Polymarket Trading Works
The interface is straightforward, but the rules, spread and available liquidity determine the actual trade.
Read the Question
Confirm the deadline, outcome definitions, official evidence and special conditions that control resolution.
Choose an Outcome
Buy Yes, No or another listed outcome when its current price is lower than your own estimate of the probability.
Place the Trade
Review the ask price, order size, spread, fee and available depth before submitting an immediate or resting order.
Sell or Redeem
Sell before resolution at an available bid, or hold winning shares until they can be redeemed for $1 each.
Simple Polymarket Share Example
Suppose Yes shares cost $0.45 and you purchase 100 shares. The contract cost is $45 before any taker fee. When the market resolves Yes, the position redeems for $100 and produces a $55 gross profit before fees. When it resolves No, the shares become worth $0 and the $45 contract cost is lost. Selling earlier produces a gain or loss based on the price and liquidity available at that time.
Example Calculation
Why the Displayed Price May Not Be Your Trade Price
Polymarket normally displays the midpoint between the best bid and best ask. When the spread becomes wider than $0.10, the interface can show the last traded price instead. Buying generally executes against the lowest available ask, while selling generally executes against the highest available bid, so the displayed probability isn't always the price you receive.
Polymarket Categories, Topics and Trading Features
The platform combines broad topic pages with faster discovery tools for live events, breaking stories and specialized products.
Politics and Elections
Global elections, primaries, leadership contests, appointments, legislation, midterms and political control questions.
Sports and Esports
Games, tournaments, titles, season outcomes, player results, League of Legends and other competitive events.
Crypto and Finance
Bitcoin levels, crypto prices, earnings, commodities, interest rates, Federal Reserve decisions and economic releases.
World and Geopolitics
Conflicts, ceasefires, sanctions, shipping routes, oil, diplomatic agreements and other measurable international developments.
Technology and AI
Model releases, company milestones, SpaceX missions, product dates, software launches and technology-industry forecasts.
Culture and Entertainment
Movies, games, streaming, awards, public mentions, releases and other cultural outcomes with defined resolution criteria.
Weather and Environment
Daily temperatures, air quality, storms, precipitation and official weather observations tied to named sources.
Breaking News
Fast-moving markets grouped around the stories that changed most as traders processed new information during the previous day.
Topic Collections
Dedicated pages can group markets around a person, country, company, franchise, event or developing theme for faster research.
Trending and Breaking
Trending surfaces active questions, while Breaking highlights the markets with the largest recent moves and connects those changes to current developments.
Combos
Combos bundle several sports positions into one trade. Every leg must resolve correctly for the Combo to win, which increases the potential payout and the chance of losing the full position.
Perpetual Futures
Perps let eligible traders go long or short with leverage and no fixed expiration. They aren't prediction-market shares and carry separate margin, funding and liquidation risks.
Market availability changes continuously. Topics shown in navigation or search results don't guarantee that every visitor can trade them, because jurisdiction, product eligibility, account status and platform rules still apply.
Polymarket Fees, Orders, Liquidity and Rewards
Trading costs depend on the market category and whether the order adds or removes liquidity from the book.
Maker and Taker Orders
Makers place orders that rest on the book and add liquidity. Takers match immediately against existing orders and remove liquidity. Current Polymarket rules charge makers no trading fee, while taker fees apply to selected categories.
Spreads and Order Depth
The spread is the difference between the best bid and best ask. Deeper order books usually allow larger trades with less price impact, while a thin market can create slippage or prevent an early exit at the expected price.
Limit Orders
Limit orders set the worst price a trader will accept. They provide price control but may remain open, fill only partly or never execute when no counterparty accepts the terms.
| Market Category | Published Taker Fee Rate | Maker Fee Rate | Published Maker Rebate Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 0.07 | 0 | 20% |
| Sports | 0.05 | 0 | 15% |
| Finance and Politics | 0.04 | 0 | 25% |
| Economics, Culture, Weather and General | 0.05 | 0 | 25% |
| Mentions and Tech | 0.04 | 0 | 25% |
| Geopolitics | 0 | 0 | Not applicable |
Polymarket calculates taker fees using the number of shares, the fee rate and the share price. The fee is highest near a 50% probability and lower near the extremes. Review the final order screen because fee schedules, enabled markets and rebate percentages can change.
Daily Rewards
Competitive resting limit orders can earn daily rewards in selected markets when they meet the active scoring rules.
Holding Rewards
Eligible positions can earn a variable annualized reward based on sampled position value and daily distribution rules.
Maker Rebates
Part of collected taker fees can be redistributed to qualifying makers who provide useful liquidity in fee-enabled markets.
Referral Rewards
Eligible accounts can earn a share of net fees generated by referred traders when the current referral conditions are satisfied.
How Polymarket Resolves Markets
The title explains the question, but the written rules determine which outcome wins and which evidence controls the decision.
Define the Outcome
The market identifies its deadline, evidence source, edge cases and the exact condition required for each result.
Submit a Result
Once the event becomes clear, an outcome can be proposed through the UMA Optimistic Oracle with a financial bond.
Allow Disputes
Other participants can challenge an incorrect proposal during the review period and move the question into a longer dispute process.
Redeem Winners
Winning outcome tokens become redeemable for $1, losing tokens become worthless and trading stops after final resolution.
Undisputed Markets
An accurate proposal can pass through the challenge window and resolve relatively quickly. The published process uses a two-hour challenge period before an undisputed result becomes final.
Disputed Markets
A challenged result can require another proposal, evidence review and a UMA token-holder vote. Disputed resolution can take several days, so traders shouldn't assume immediate redemption after an event ends.
How Accurate Are Polymarket Predictions?
Polymarket publishes historical measurements showing how often the leading outcome matched the final result before resolution.
The accuracy figure counts whether the outcome leading at the selected snapshot eventually won. The Brier score goes further by measuring the squared distance between each probability and the actual result, with a lower score representing better calibration.
These statistics summarize resolved markets and don't guarantee that a particular question is efficient, liquid or correctly priced. Accuracy also improves near resolution because traders receive more information and some outcomes become close to certain.
Treat market prices as crowd estimates rather than promises. Your own trade still depends on entry price, fees, spread, timing, resolution rules and whether the expected edge is large enough to justify the possibility of losing the entire position.
Is Polymarket Legit and Is It Safe?
Polymarket is a real operating marketplace, but legitimacy, safety and legal access are different questions that require separate answers.
Operating Platform
Polymarket has active markets, public data APIs, documented smart contracts and a separate US exchange structure. That establishes a functioning business, not a guarantee of profit or availability.
Self-Custody
International users control non-custodial wallets and private keys. Losing access credentials or sharing a key can cause permanent loss that support may be unable to reverse.
Smart Contracts
Trades settle through contracts on Polygon, and published exchange contracts have undergone security audits. Audits reduce uncertainty but can't remove every software, protocol or operational risk.
Market Risk
Incorrect shares can lose their entire cost. Thin liquidity, rapid price movement, disputed resolution, slippage and changing rules can also affect the final result of a trade.
pUSD Is Collateral, Not Polymarket Stock
The international platform uses pUSD as its trading collateral. pUSD is an ERC-20 token on Polygon backed by USDC through onchain wrapping and unwrapping contracts. It isn't equity in Polymarket, and the company hasn't announced an official speculative Polymarket token or airdrop.
Polymarket Trading, Betting and Gambling Terminology
“Polymarket betting” is a common search phrase, but “trading” better describes how the order book and outcome shares operate.
Why Traders Use the Word Trading
Participants buy and sell positions from other market users, prices move with supply and demand, limit orders can rest on a book, and positions can be closed before settlement. Those mechanics resemble exchange trading more than a fixed wager accepted by a house.
Why People Still Call It Betting
Traders commit money to uncertain outcomes and can lose the full amount paid for incorrect shares. Sports, elections and entertainment markets also resemble familiar wagering topics, so the everyday term remains common even when the structure is different.
The question “is Polymarket gambling?” doesn't have one universal answer because legal classifications differ by product and location. Polymarket US operates as a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market, while the international platform follows a separate legal structure and restricts access in jurisdictions where trading isn't permitted.
Polymarket Signup, Funding and Withdrawals
The available account and payment steps depend on whether the user is eligible for the international website or the separate US product.
International Signup
Polymarket.com supports account creation through email, Google or a compatible crypto wallet. Email and social signups create a wallet connection behind the account, while direct wallet users connect and authorize trading themselves.
Deposits
International deposits can use supported tokens and blockchain networks shown in the account. Each profile receives network-specific deposit addresses, so traders must match the asset and chain exactly before sending funds.
Withdrawals
Available collateral can be withdrawn through the supported method shown in the account. Open orders, unsettled positions, network fees, third-party processors and verification checks can affect timing and the final amount received.
Private-Key Security
Never share a login code, seed phrase or private key. Confirm the destination address and network before transferring crypto, use only official Polymarket pages or applications, and test unfamiliar routes with a small amount before sending a larger balance.
Polymarket Company History and Expansion
Polymarket has moved from a crypto-native prediction platform into a wider group of international, US and developer products.
Polymarket Launches
Shayne Coplan founded Polymarket as a market for trading on real-world outcomes through blockchain-based infrastructure.
US Regulatory Settlement
The original international business reached a settlement with the CFTC concerning unregistered event-based contracts and restricted US access to that platform.
Polymarket US Structure
QCX LLC received Designated Contract Market status and now operates under the Polymarket US name as the regulated US exchange entity.
Broader Product Suite
Polymarket expands its interfaces and infrastructure with a US application, pUSD collateral, Combos, perpetual futures, breaking news discovery, rewards and upgraded developer tools.
Polymarket Stock, Outcome Shares and Tokens
Three different uses of the word “share” can create confusion for new traders researching Polymarket ownership or market prices.
Polymarket Company Stock
Polymarket is privately held, so ordinary investors can't search a major public exchange for a Polymarket ticker and buy public company shares through a standard brokerage account.
Prediction-Market Shares
Yes and No shares represent claims on a defined event outcome. They aren't equity, don't provide ownership rights and expire into a $1 or $0 redemption value after resolution.
pUSD and Token Claims
pUSD is the collateral used for international trading. Polymarket warns that it hasn't announced a separate platform-token launch or airdrop, so unofficial token promotions should be treated as scams.
Private-market services may display indications related to shares in a privately held company, but those listings aren't the same as a public stock quote. Access can be limited to eligible investors, available sellers and separate transaction terms.
Review Polymarket Offers Before You Trade
Compare the current promotion, eligibility rules and qualifying requirements before creating an account. Then read the market rules, check the spread and decide whether the maximum possible loss fits your budget.
View Polymarket Bonuses